If social media, events calendars, procurement briefings and tenders issued are to be believed, South African cities are undergoing a bicycling revolution. ‘Bicycle-friendly’ is a phrase on the lips and in the speeches of political figures nationwide (CoCT 2012/02/17; Business Day 2014), at what seems to be an increasing number of Non-Motorised Transport (NMT) conferences, workshops and infrastructure launches.

Curious to investigate the impact of this increased visibility of ‘NMT’ – whether online, on the podium, or on the ground – in this paper, presented at the Southern African Transport Conference (SATC) in Pretoria in July 2015, I offer a brief view of the ‘bicycle transport’ aspect of NMT in Cape Town since 2003 (the year of the first National Household Travel Survey, and the Western Cape Province’s first Mobility Strategy). This overview looks at trends in bicycle policies and programmes, legislation, the development of bicycle facilities, promotional activities, and training and education. The question is, have these interventions led to an increase in bicycle transport (utility cycling)? In pursuit of an answer, the author poses further questions: what data exists to compare use or mode-share ‘then’ and ‘now’? How are ‘bicycle-friendly’ interventions evaluated and revised? And can we claim that a significant shift in utility cycling patterns is underway?

But do we really know? According to Pucher, Dill & Handy (‘Infrastructure, programs, and policies to increase bicycling: An international review’, 2010), what will deliver an increased bicycle mode share is a combination of quality bicycle infrastructure and parking, bicycle integration with public transport, access to bicycles, bicycle promotion and marketing, legislation, and education and training programmes.

This paper therefore begins with an overview of the relevant policies, strategies and frameworks since 2003 in South Africa, and in Cape Town in particular. (This paper considers the “bicycle transport” aspect of NMT only.) It goes on to summarise the trends and changes in providing the above ingredients for increased bicycle use and mode share. While data includes peer-reviewed literature and public policy, it also includes anecdote, media statement, and online content. The purpose of the paper is not to delve into theories of behaviour or policy change, or to allocate causality, but to briefly chart the observed trends and begin to ask further questions: what data exists to compare either mode-share (rate) or numbers “then” and “now”? How are “bicycle-friendly” interventions evaluated and revised? Can we make the claim that a significant shift in utility cycling patterns is underway?